2009 Nfl Preview - A Bettors Guide

It’s almost time for the 2009 NFL regular-season to start and with that in mind everyone who religiously bets each week is looking for any edge that they can garner. Here’s a quick look at each division and a consideration of how you might turn their untested potential into cash in your pocket.

NFC North- Winner: Chicago Bears

Although the Vikings possess running back Adrian Peterson, a fine offensive line and tough defense, the addition of Favre at quarterback has created a lot of controversy amongst the team. The Bears added quarterback Jay Cutler but will still struggle on offense. They’ll rely on their special teams and an improved defense to keep them in the mix. Last season, the Pack lost seven games by four or less, making them a bettor’s nightmare. They’re still rebuilding. The Lions will win more than they did last season. (Now there’s a prediction!)

NFC South- Winner: New Orleans Saints; Wild Card: Carolina Panthers

For the Saints, look for Drew Brees to rack up more air miles than Barack Obama and for a more aggressive defensive to perform better than they did in 2008. The Panthers welcome back Julius Peppers on “D” and feature a rigorous running game. They’ll be contenders. The Falcons played above their heads last season; reality will set in this year. The Buccaneers have “D” problems, although their running game is improved.

NFC East- Winner: New York Giants; Wild Card: Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC East will be a battle between the Giants and the Eagles with the Cowboys struggling due to an overall lack of depth, and the Redskins showing gaps at the slot receiver and tackle spots. For the Giants, there’s good news as they’ve added depth on “D.” Last year the New York Football Giants saw their pass rush drop off as they went deep into the season. The Eagles, with the addition of Michael Vick, have an excellent backup quarterback in place. The O-line looks good but will Westbrook stay healthy?

NFC West- Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were terrible last season because just about the entire offense was injured. They’re back and healthy. Additions at linebacker will help on that side of the ball. The Rams added excellent talent to the offensive line via the draft. That will be a boost, while the Cardinals’ lack of depth on the O-line, a new “D” coordinator and an aging Kurt Warner will relegate the team to second or third. The 49ers still lack a lot.

AFC North- Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers; Wild Card: Baltimore Ravens

The Steelers are back and improved on “D” and in the running ranks. Can they win the whole thing again this year? The Ravens put second-year quarterback Joe Flacco on the field and sport a healthy, tough defense. Both the Bengals and Browns look to be lacking on defense and neither offer an offense that is outstanding.

AFC South—Winner: Indianapolis Colts; Wild Card: Tennessee Titans

Sure the Colts have a new coach but they also put Peyton Manning back on the field and will show a more aggressive, larger defense. The rest of the conference is tough to figure out, but I’m going with the Titans in second and as one of the Wild Card picks. Although the club is aging, they show a fine offensive line and decent running game. The Jaguars could be in the mix but they have the opposite problem of the Titans—youth. If the Texans were in a different division, they could take the Wild Card but not in the South.

AFC East—Winner: New England Patriots

Okay, if Brady is back so too are the Pats. And he is and they are. The rest of the pack, the Dolphins, Jets and Bills, show too many holes in too many areas. This is an easy division to pick. The Fins have talented rookies on “D” who need time to develop, the Jets post a rookie signal caller and new coach and the Bills have T.O., no O-line and a porous defense. Enough said?

AFC West—Winner: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have a dynamic offense and solid defense. The Chiefs have imported New England guys, including their new coach, new front office and new quarterback, Matt Cassel. They look to be the Patriots West but not until next year. The Raiders are still owned by Al Davis and the Broncos enter their post-Mike Shanahan era. No hope for either team.

Sports Betting Tips

The fact is that prognosticating is just that. The season will unfold in its own way. Here are a few tips to consider when wagering on the 2009 NFL season.

· Study weekly, up-to-date match ups to determine which team has the upper hand.

· Bet a favorite with a spread of 3.5 or less if you’re certain they will win outright. Otherwise, stay away from that action.

· Usually, the teams that make the playoffs beat the spread more times than not. The top rated teams are more often than not good bets. They commonly beat the spread an average of 60% of the time.

· Also, on average favored clubs that massacre the spread by 14 or more points one week are tough to handicap the next. Clubs that beat the spread by two touchdowns or more one week overcome the spread the next week just 50% of the time.

· In your handicapping, don’t forget to consider field conditions and weather, field goal kickers and coaching staffs, amongst other non-sexy and supposedly overlooked aspects of the game.

· Consider utilizing a system or handicapping service, but don’t let them do all of the work. Stay involved in the game throughout the season and the post season.

The NFL is one of the most commonly bet leagues in America. When wagering, be sure to do your homework consistently. One injury, trade, or improvement can tip the balance in a league that boasts about parity.

By: Peter Synder

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The author has a regular blog at www.footballformula.com. Football Formula is your #1 resource for sports gambling information.