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2011 Fantasy Baseball - Stolen Bases Value
The stolen base is a key category in Rotisserie / Fantasy baseball. Only 20 or so players in each league steal enough to have a significant impact on the category. Even less are able to accumulate steals without doing so at the expense of the other stats. While it is true that speed has to be an emphasis in any fantasy draft, many fantasy managers put so much emphasis on stolen bases that it jeopardizes their competitiveness. A typical stolen base guy hits at the top of the order and does not hit for power, thus the total value to the team (because of the lack of HR's and RBI's) is reduced. In 2010 only 11 players in the American League stole 30 or more bases and only 8 in the National League. Of the 11 that stole 30 or more in the AL only one: Alex Rios had more than 20 HR's (21), and only two of them: Alex Rios (88) and Carl Crawford (90) had more than 80 RBI's. In the National League only 8 stole 30+ bases and of those only two: Hanley Ramirez (21) and Drew Stubbs (22) had more than 20 Hr's. And none of those players in the National League had more than 80 RBI's. In other words, to compete for the top SB category in any competitive league, a fantasy team will likely have to give-up its chances of finishing strong in HR and RBI. The other issue to consider when drafting a Stolen Base player is where he hits in the order and whether he is a proven player or not. Last year I drafted Alcides Escobar and had projected that he would get me at least 25 Stolen Bases since I assumed he would hit 1st or 2nd. What happened was that he struggled early in the season and ended up hitting 8th most of the year and ended up with only 10 Stolen Bases. The same thing hapenned to Drew Stubbs (again projected to be Leadoff) but ended up hitting 8th much of the year. Non-veteran speed guys who are struggling midseason are frequently dropped from 1st or 2nd to 7th or 8th in the order while sluggers usually only drop a spot or two in the order. The higher the player bats in the order the more at bats he will see in a year and the more scoring opportunities he can have. When you take into consideration the risk factor of minor leg injuries with the speed guys, it becomes evident that the speed player carries a much greater risk than the average power hitter. An ideal draft situation is where you draft players that have a combination of speed and power: Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright, Hunter Pence, Carl Crawford, Alex Rios, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo are ideal players to draft. These players are more likely to bat in the middle of the line-up (2-5th). You should seriously consider drafting at least one of these players in the first few rounds. It is very important to draft at least one of the top power/speed players early in the draft since most of the HR/SB threats later in the draft will negatively affect other categories. If you wait until late in the draft to get your Stolen Bases you will find that you will way operpay for those players. Another strategy in drafting speed/power players is to draft players that will provide you with stolen bases in positions that are traditionally weak in this category (Catcher, First and Third Base). This allows a team to fill out the rest of the roster with mostly higher average power hitters that will be in the running for the league lead in the rest of the offensive categories. If you are not sure what to do: choose power over speed. Middle of the lineup power hitters contribute in HR, RBI, and usually score as many Runs as do their top of the order players. In general, most leadoff-type hitter only contributes in runs and stolen bases. Draft top SB players that might be light on power at the 2B and SS positions where the lack of HR and RBI potential will not be as significant. Drafting multiple pure speed (30+ SB potential, low HR and RBI potential) players at the Outfield position is a mistake unless the power gap is made up for at other positions such as 2B and SS. Avoid the temptation to draft too much speed. Drafting one of the top stolen base threats and counting on them for a large percentage of the team contributions to the stat will not work. Should that player get hurt, it will be very difficult to remain competitive in SB. Consider drafting a pure speedster later in the draft for a bench position if you feel he might have a chance to break into the starting lineup or if your league allows setting-up rosters on a daily basis, start them in key situations against catchers who struggle to throw out base runners. Keep an eye out for the potential call-up of a speed prospects. If you feel the player being called-up has a potential to replace one that might be traded at the trade deadline. Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com For Fantasy and Rotisserie Baseball Strategy, Tips, Advice, and Player Values visit www.2011fantasydraft.com |
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