Custom Search
|
|
A Circle Of Competence.... In Poland
A few observations can start a nice “Circle of Competence”…………… As an example of developing a “non-academic” circle of competence, I took a trip to Poland in September and would like to share some thoughts with you about what I think of Poland as a stock market investment… * While I was on a bike tour, the guide told me that it was the only country in the E.U. to have economic growth this year. * As far as I could see, the cost of living was very reasonable in comparison to other EU countries that I have visited. As a business person, I know that I would look favourably upon those factors as a potential international expansion of my business… and I doubt that I am alone in that. * The number of cranes on the horizion tells me that construction and hence, further expansion is on this cards for this country. * Two of the three main characteristics of Krakow is the industry tourism and the number of universities (Copernicus studied here – I took a picture of his statue!!). The third is religion, due in no small part of Pope John Paul II. * They have their own sovereign currency which currently is working out at €1 = 4 PLN, which encourages further tourism and foreign direct investment. I looked further afield to see what did other commentators think of Poland and I see there is agreement. For example, Tom Lydon from seekingalpha.com had this article in the daily recently – you can directly access the link in the resource box here, or view the content below. Poland’s economy and related ETFs have sidestepped the reaches of recession and the country may end up as one of the few European countries to report a positive growth for the year. The Polish economy stepped lightly throughout the global recession because its economy was not as heavily invested in exports compared to its other European counterparts, remarks Carter Dougherty for The New York Times. As a result, the emerging economy has seen a few positive developments: * Poland’s GDP increased by 1.1% in the second quarter by the same period year-over-year, a result well above the expected 0.5% growth, writes Polya Lesova for MarketWatch. * The Polish zloty jumped 1% against the euro and 1.1% against the dollar on the good economic report. * The Danske Bank expects the economy to grow between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2009. * The Polish Central Bank kept interest rates at 3.5%, citing increase in retail sales and rise in economic sentiment as indicators signaling an improvement in the economy. * Poland’s labor market remains strengthened by foreign investment. Many big-name global manufacturers are setting up shop in Poland, which has helped bolster the employment rate. On the flip side, Ryszard Petru, chief economist at BRE Bank in Warsaw, estimates unemployment will hit 9.9% by the end of 2009, up from 7.1%. The Central Bank also warns that reduced lending, more notably to the corporate sector, may diminish overall economic growth. While there currently isn’t a Poland single-country ETF, there are a selection of emerging market/frontier market ETFs that do have Poland as a large component. These types of region-specific ETFs also have the added benefit of spreading risk between the economic outcomes of countries included in the ETFs. * Claymore/BNY Mellon Frontier Markets (FRN): up 35.6% year-to-date; Poland is 15.1% * SPDR S&P Emerging Europe (GUR): up 46.6% year-to-date; Poland is 12.2% This is just an example of how to build a “Circle of Competence” – that is the easy part. However, choosing stocks within it needs some further analysis. Why not do it like the best? Visit our web site now and let the power of compounding work in your favour!!! Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com Visit our web site at www.stockmarketsuccessonline.com to learn just how Buffett invests... The article quoted from www.seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com/article/160251-etf-ideas-for-poland-s-handsome-recovery |
|