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Iran Nuclear Weapons And Oil
U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, was very clear in a TV appearance a few months on Fox news. She stated as a matter-of-one factly that the U.S. would “obliterate Iran” in a conflict. How true. So if you were Ahmadinejad and Khomeini having a beer and discussing a strategy to take on the “Great Satan” (the U.S.) and the “Little Satan” (Israel), what would be the major issue? OIL ! Every day the human race consumes some 86 million barrels oil. The global economy relies on oil for everything from transportation, fertilizer to grow food, manufacturing of chemicals, clothes, plastics, and more. Further, it has been clearly established by economic professionals that there is a direct relationship between global economic growth and the price of crude. The economic reality is that without an abundant supply of cheap energy, it is impossible for the economy to grow. Oil at an elevated price could cause a recession or an economic collapse depending on how high the price went and for how long. The Unites States represent 5% of the world economy but consumes 25% of the world oil production. Of that some 70% is used for transportation alone. The U.S. imports about 14 million barrels of oil per day. It has a strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) of over 700 million barrels of oil, equivalent to a roughly 50 day supply. While the Israel news has recently reported significant oil and natural gas finds, it is still dependant on others for its oil. The Iranians have the power to control the Straits of Hormuz where over nineteen percent of the global oil flows everyday. It also has they capability and has expressed a willingness to destroy the Saudi oil fields, or anyone that provides support to any military efforts against it. If the oil markets believe that there is a realistic possibility of a Middle East war, oil prices will jump. The Saudis the world’s largest oil producer / exporter and has the capacity to produce some 12 million Take 16 million barrels per day of oil off of the market (Iran 4 m/bd and Saudi oil production 12 m/bd) for an extended period of time and there will be major repercussions. The ability for an interruption in oil to affect the world economy should not be underestimated. In 2008, Oil went over $100 per barrel for just about 2 quarters and that placed a major drag on the economy. It wasn’t until Lehman Brothers collapsed did the government even admit we were in a recession. Being aware of its ability to inflict damage on the Western economy with its control of oil flow, Iran is most certainly ready to exploit it. Considering the weakened state of the world economy, don’t think for a heartbeat that this does not come up in their conversation over beer. In fact, it reasonable to assume this is the cornerstone of their strategy. Iran’s leader Ahmadinejad has said publicly on several occasions that he believes that he is responsible for ushering in a ‘new age” and the return of the 12th Imam (the Islamic savior). He believes a period of major global turmoil is required to make this happen. Iran’s ability to manipulate oil markets and its ability to affect its price would be an ideal way to do initiate a period of turmoil. And if the U.S. were marginalized due to economic collapse, it would not be that difficult for it to “wipe Israel off of the face of the earth”. So what is the bottom line? Iranian missiles are not an issue. The global economy will suffer in direct proportion to increased price of oil. Being well aware of Iran’s options and there ramifications, you would have to believe have back up plans to mitigate the effects of Iran’s response. Does Saudi Arabia have plans in place to rebuild its infrastructure if it is damaged? Does the U.S. military have viable plans to manage mines laid by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz? And to neutralize surface to surface batteries on Iran shores along the Straits? How long will it take for the Straits to be made safe for commercial shipping traffic again? Without a positive answer to these issues, the global economy may be in for worse time in the event of a war. Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com Check out more by F.D. Katso including the Middle East News forums and find out about a possible Israel Iran war 2011or another Middle East War |
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