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Obama’s Meetings With China’s Hu And India’s Singh Compared

Over the past three months, U.S. President Barack Obama has met with the leaders of the two most populous and fastest growing countries in the world – Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and, more recently, China’s President Hu Jintao. In this article, we examine the differences between the meetings and the potential path ahead in relations between the United States and both China and India.

President Obama visited India on November 6-8, 2010. Prior to the visit, there was a lack of public interest as no one anticipated any huge announcements like the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear deal. Nevertheless, the stay was largely seen as being highly successful. The Indian media was bowled over by the president’s appeal, elegance and interest. President Obama’s speech at the parliament in which he gave ringing support for an “emerged” India and offered a “global strategic partnership for the 21st century” went down very well with the Indian public.

The U.S. president’s visit was followed by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s trip to India on December 15 for a three-day visit. Premier Wen arrived with a huge political staff and a business delegation representing 100 firms.

Economic expansion is one of the principle reasons global powers have courted India this year, with U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy both visiting. Wen’s tour is not unusual, and already the two sides declare to have signed nearly 50 deals worth an estimated US$16 billion if actualized.

On the terror campaign issue, there has been good assistance between India and the United States. Though this is likely to grow further, the quality of information sharing must progress. But the main concern of Pakistan’s support for terrorism has not been resolved.

Recent revelations by WikiLeaks show that there is a disagreement between U.S. public postures and private assessments. China was surely on the mind of both countries but neither would like to upset it by taking a confrontational stance. The addition of the United States and Russia in the East Asia Summit is a key development in this regard.

Without mentioning China, the joint announcement mentions the need for open security planning in Asia. The U.S. government wants China to play a major role in South Asia, but this will upset the Indian government significantly. There needs to be clarity between the U.S. government and their Indian counterparts to deal with the difficult consequences of a forceful and growing China.

Although the Indo-U.S. association is a strategic joint venture given its mutual, regional and international scope, a union will take time to develop.

Let’s take a look at the long term impact of Obama’s visit. First, if and when the U.N. Security Council is transformed, the United States may support India’s application for a permanent membership of the UN body. On this issue China would likely oppose India’s entry.

Second, Obama’s declaration that some Indian government organizations will be removed from the U.S. “entity list” is also a positive outcome. By removing some Indian organizations from the entity list, a significant psychological wall to bilateral relationship has been removed.

Third, Obama’s visit will boost Indo-U.S. financial relations. Key Indian orders – about US$10 billion worth – will generate over 50,000 jobs in the United States. This is a real outcome of the visit from the U.S. point of view. New areas of collaboration may also open up. The United States is progressively looking more at India as a market as well as a source of investment.

Lastly, the United States will assist India get membership of the NSG, Wassenaar, MTCR, and Australia Group. This will help India get incorporated with the non-proliferation rule without having to sign the NPT. How this will occur is still not clear as many countries will object. Skillful diplomacy will be required to make this happen, but U.S. support will help.

By: Dezan Shira and Associates

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To read the rest of this article on the China and India visits to the U.S. visit 2point6billion.com, which was established by Chris Devonshire-Ellis. Chris also established Dezan Shira & Associates, which specialises in helping companies do business in China.

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