Past Performance: A Stock Market Investment Trap To Avoid

One of the easiest traps to fall into when making decisions about buying or selling stocks is to make predictions about how well they will do in the future based on how they did in the past. As a matter of fact, it's such a common error and such a human tendency that every stock prospectus warns against this behavior specifically: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results".

Why is there such a strong tendency to want to look at historical performance? There are at least two good reasons.

First, even though it's appealing to think that market activity can be predicted using some kind of mathematical formula, the truth is that stock market activity is a result of human behavior. So far, no mathematical formula has been discovered that can accurately predict it.

But humans crave stability and predictability. Looking backward to the past gives us the false hope that the future will unfold in a similar manner. However, wishful thinking is not a good basis for sound business decisions. And successful long-term investing in the stock market requires decisions based on solid business principles, not emotions.

Second, there's a lot of "selling" going on that is thinly disguised as "useful information". Since investing in securities has become so popular since the end of the 20th century, a lot of "celebrity analysts" have been created in the media. Stock market pundits have their own television shows, radio shows, Internet blogs and newspaper columns.

Information about investing in the stock market has become mainstream entertainment. And a large part of the entertainment is showing charts, graphs and other kinds of "historical" visual proof of the pundit's ability to predict the stock market's performance.

One of the reasons this kind of historical visual proof is so tempting to believe is the human tendency to think that if a stock sold at a high price in the recent past, that price must be its "true value". There is a tendency to think that if its price has fallen, it's probably a bargain because it will be only a matter of time before the price increases to its "true value" again.

In reality, the history of the stock market is full of companies whose stocks once traded high, then fell never to rise again. Anyone who owned stock in Montgomery Wards or Krispy Kreme knows that all too well.

The inability of a stock’s past performance to predict its future performance is the reason that many smart investors don't rely heavily on measurements like the P/E ratio, or other measurements that look to past quarters’ performance. As Warren Buffett has proven time and time again, buying stocks based on the strength of the company's management is a much better strategy.

By: Bernz Jayma P.

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Author and entrepreneur Bernz Jayma P. is the owner of a financial blog, dedicated to helping people expand their knowledge about their personal finances. Learn up to date investing strategies and retirement planning by visiting www.Invesmint.com.