Sweet 16 West Regional - Ob Expert Sports Picks, Ncaab Odds
#1 UCLA vs. #12 Western Kentucky University
The UCLA Bruins escaped with probably the closest win of any tournament game this year, and maybe the leas likely, against an unsung Texas A&M team that lost its coach over the summer. Trailing almost the entire second half, the Bruins finally showed that Ben Howland-coached magic and put the clamps down on the Aggies defense, not allowing a field goal for almost a 9-minute stretch of the second half. Combine stellar defense with timely shooting and rebounding and you have the key to Howland-ball, which has become synonymous with Final Four ball the past several seasons. After escaping with a two point win against the Aggies, thanks to the amazing play of Kevin Love and Darren Collison (and more than a little help from the referees), the Bruins could certainly use an easy test in the Sweet Sixteen, and it appears in Western Kentucky, they just might get their wish.
The Bruins will continue to rely on Love and Collison, as well as their trademark defense to shut down an overmatched Western Kentucky team, that hopes to be this year's Cinderella. After holding the teams in the first two rounds to less than 30 percent shooting from the field and an eye-popping 13 percent from three, the Bruins should not be expected to have many problems against WKU.
Western Kentucky knows all about close games, having edged out Drake in the first round by two points on Ty Rogers' buzzer-beating 3-pointer, inarguably the shot of the tournament thus far. The exciting part of Thursday night's game may be the opportunity for Courtney Lee of WKU to have his coming out party on a national stage. The senior leader of the Hilltoppers averaged 20 points per game this season and shot 40 percent from distance. They will need the electrifying athlete with unbelievable hops to try and carry them to a massive upset. Lee will rely on WKU's sharp-shooters for assistance with the scoring load. WKU has made almost 50 percent of its 3s in the tournament (20-44), and they will need to continue to have the touch from downtown in order to beat the Bruins. And with UCLA's interior defense, anchored by Love, the Hilltoppers might do well to try and beat the Bruins from outside.
The Bruins may have gotten lucky to squeak by the would-be upset from A&M, the bigger and more talented Bruins shouldn't have any problems ending Cinderella's ball and turning the Hilltoppers' carriage back into a pumpkin.
Expect UCLA to roll to another Elite 8 and win large.
#3 Xavier vs. #7 West Virgina
This may not be the sexiest match-up in the Sweet 16, but Xavier vs. West Virginia may be one of the best 8 games played. Xavier withstood an impressive push by the streaking Georgia Bulldogs to advance to a game against a physical Purdue team that it handled with relative ease. Xavier is a team that will rely on its shooting ability to outlast teams, and getting point guard Drew Lavender back to 100 percent following an ankle injury gives them a competent man to run the show and distribute the ball to his deep team. Xavier had four players go for double figures in the Purdue game. If the Musketeers want to continue to make the Atlantic-10 proud by advancing to the Elite 8, however, they are going to have to get tougher on the boards, as West Virginia has shown to be monsters on the glass in their first two games.
The Mountaineers have an interesting look to their season and tournament thus far. After fighting for an at-large bid in the final weeks of the season, the Mountaineers drew Arizona in the first and Duke in the second round. On paper that would look to be fairly daunting, but the fact of the matter is that Arizona is not the team they have been in years past, and Duke had been crumbling slowly over the final part of the season, falling prey to injuries and seeming exhaustion. But just because those two teams aren't as good this year as their reputation usually suggests is not the fault of West Virginia. All the Mountaineers have done so far this tournament is go out and play with extreme intensity against whoever they got matched up against, and they played them well.
Led by Joe Alexander and Alex Ruoff, the Mountaineers have proven to be a team with some serious scoring threats, including the surprising back-up Joe Mazzulla, the feisty guard who made a name for himself in round two by almost dropping a triple-double on Coach K's boys. The Mountaineers, not known as a strong outside shooting team, lived by the three in their first round game against Arizona, going 11-19 against Arizona, and they will need to continue to shoot well from outside to beat the A-10 champs. If their shots aren't falling, they will need to attack the glass as they did against Duke. The problem the not-surprisingly undisciplined and hyperactive defenders of Bob Huggins may have is trying to defend Xavier's myriad scorers without fouling too often. Huggins' kids are notorious for cheap fouls and Xavier is widely respected as one of the best foul shooting teams in the tournament, the anti-Memphis, if you will.
Expect this game to be close, with free throws and rebounds deciding the outcome. I like Xavier moving on with an easy winner.
