The Odds Could Be Good But The Goods Could Be Odd

This time round, those investors who follow nothing but sentiment trends, may well start feeling that their money is on a runaway train which there is no way to stop, no way to control, no way of knowing where it is going or when it gets there. Whilst it is true that one cannot make an omelette without breaking an egg, if the egg turns out to be bad, nobody will want to eat it! Whether it is stocks and shares, currencies, or anything else, the same principle applies. It is prudent to know the condition of what you are backing to get at least a decent run for your money.

Sentiment is all very well, but is it a real pointer in the right direction? Does it represent true odds? You can get grey hair worrying about getting grey hair. If a horse is called “Father Xmas” and runs late in December, it is sure to get a following even if the form is lousy. There are also trends which are started in order to be chased.

For instance, when buying a dog you would want to check the pedigree, know about any health data such as sound legs, eyes, etc. When buying a horse, the questions are even more stringent. When making large investments it is prudent to know as much as possible about what you are buying and following a trend may not be good enough in the long run.

The decision to cross a road safely depends on safety checks. There you look right and left and you leave it to your brain to tell you whether it is safe to cross or not. You trust yourself completely. You are certain you can or cannot proceed.
However, if a stranger tells you to cross, you would want to look yourself if all is in fact O.K. to cross. There is an element of doubt. If the person who tells you to cross is a friend, the element of doubt is smaller. If the person is your mum or dad, the element of doubt is smaller still. Your instinct also comes into play.

Automatically degrees of doubt vary and your actions are guided accordingly.
Often certain data is printed in small print and other data is in larger bold print. Are the positive points printed in bold print or small print? Are the negative points printed in small or bold print? The answer is not hard to arrive at. The trend of the main movement of interest and action tends to follow the bold print not the small print, otherwise why not have it all equally printed?

Following rumours has made more people take the wrong path than the right one even in normal times. Doing the same these days is harder still.

By: Paul Dubsky

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Paul Dubsky is director of Foreign Currency Exchange & Transfers Ltd. The company is focused on being able to offer really friendly currency exchange rates and Currency Exchange Services. Exchange currency cheap and fast! We charge no commission or fee.