The Consumer Confidence Index is rising and surveys report optimism among business leaders despite gloomy labor statistics. Unemployment claims rose only 365,000 in May and nearly 14 million people were unemployed. Projections are that unemployment will peak at 15 million before the recession ends in early 2010. Paradoxically, the labor report also said there were roughly three million vacant jobs that employers want to fill. Sounds like promising news - but it's not. Instead, it indicates a basic shift in the economy and a widening gap between employer needs and worker skills. People who have lost jobs in shrinking industries like manufacturing, construction, and retail generally lack the skills required for open positions in growing industries like health care, education, green technologies, and government. At the same time, the worst fall in 50 years in real estate values has frozen unemployed workers in place - they can't afford to sell their homes and move to where new jobs are located.
So far, the unemployed cling to a desperate hope that things will return to "normal." It's hard to accept that the old jobs aren't coming back, and it will take years to rebuild their savings. For example, many of the 27,000 people laid off when Chrysler entered bankruptcy won't be rehired when it emerges. People in severely impacted states like Indiana and Michigan are ignoring well-paying jobs in southern states that are recovering because they are reluctant to move and retrain themselves. Similarly, laid-off Wall Street workers are grappling with the stark reality that they must change their lifestyle and accept a job that pays less. It will probably take several years for the realization to sink in that there is an entirely different "normal."
Employers need to change their thinking as well, recognizing that the "perfect" candidate may not exist. Some jobs in emerging industries require skills that salary, no matter how high, will not be sufficient to attract enough qualified candidates until a new generation of workers can be trained. For example, the financial crisis has produced a demand for accounting specialties that far exceeds the labor supply. To solve this dilemma, employers and governments must fund new training programs. The stimulus act, unfortunately, provided little funding to retrain workers. So, in the mean time, employers will be forced to accept imperfect fits to fill vacancies, and the unemployed will have to accept lower pay to start new careers that lead to grater success.
These broad shifts in the economy arouse the dragons of change - the emotional resistance we feel when we're forced to change. Change is the process of letting go of the old and embracing the new. The chasm between the old and the new is a chaotic but creative period. We struggle to accept that the old is gone, but at the same time we're not sure what the new will be like. The uncertainty causes some to run away from risky new beginnings and cling to the slim hope that things could be like they were. To stay on top in such times, you can't just react to changes. You must anticipate changes, embrace the realities of the changes you see, and use them to advance your success.
Today is the ideal time to hire talent that positions your organization for the economic rebound, but you may want to use alternative hiring techniques. For example, hire future employees as part time consultants to minimize compensation costs and verify that they fit your organization. A second idea is to hire employees with deferred start dates and pay them a salary retainer. This technique is particularly effective with new graduates. A third possibility is hiring baby-boomers. Many of them have long experience and are looking for part time work since their retirement funds have been affected by the stock market crash and drop in real estate values. Companies that put a hiring freeze in effect "until things turn around" run the risk of being forced to hire leftovers with weaker qualifications than they would like. The skills reservoir is as full as it will ever be - now is the time to get the sweetest water! If you're unemployed, now is the time to jump into a new pool - start a new career, possibly your own company.
Dick Stieglitz's groundbreaking work in helping executives use change to achieve success have earned him the title of the "Change Doctor." His new book, "Taming the Dragons of Change in Business," is based on 35 years experience in industry and government. Dick publishes a monthly e-letter called "The Change Challenge," and frequently speaks at business forums on the topic of new trends in a changing world. After earning a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering, Dick served ten years in the U.S. Navy refueling nuclear submarines before moving to the corporate world. Before founding his own company in 1984, he was VP of a software company, then Director of Defense Consulting for an aerospace firm. Find out more about Dick and his books at www.dickstieglitz.com.
www.dragonsofchange.com
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