OK, wussies. Enough of this Belmont Stakes odds crap. Horses? With little people riding them? Come on! Let's talk about some real sports betting fun. UFC 100, the ultimate mixed martial arts fight card, is just five weeks away. It features some of the best main events you'll ever bet on at the sportsbook - two title fights and a battle of reality-show coaches. Let's explore some of the most noteworthy fights.
FRANK MIR (12-3) vs BROCK LESNAR (3-1) - UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Sports book lines: Mir +185, Lesnar -225
Here we go – the big rematch between behemoths for the UFC heavyweight title. Mir submitted Lesnar back in February 2008, but a ton has happened for both fighters since then. Mir, one of the top jiu-jitsu specialists in the division, has always made a career for himself out of outlasting big, tough fighters, taking punishment, staying calm and gaining positions for submission attempts. However, since his win over Lesnar, Mir has developed his other skills. Against Minotauro Nogueira, the standard for Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu among heavyweights, Mir knew he had to evolve into a more complete fighter to have a shot. He developed his boxing skills and shocked MMA betting fans by knocking out Nogueira. He'll need that well-rounded game again at UFC 100.
Why? Because Lesnar is evolving geometrically. Mir may still have a slight advantage on the ground, but Lesnar is no slouch. He's a former NCAA wrestling champ and has the ability to manhandle opponents when he puts his huge, 265-pound frame on them. He hits as hard as anyone in the sport and can certainly take a punch, too. Since Lesnar has also improved his submission defense, Mir's advantage from the last fight will be diminished. Lesnar is just too big and too strong, so the brute will beat the "fighter's fighter" here.
Online wagering pick: Brock Lesnar -225
GEORGES ST-PIERRE (18-2) vs THIAGO ALVES (22-4) – UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Sports book lines: St-Pierre -260, Alves +200
Unlike the heavyweight title fight, this one is more of a David-Goliath matchup. After Anderson Silva failed to impress at UFC 97, many MMA betting fans now consider Georges-St-Pierre the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He can do anything in the octagon; his kicks and overall striking are superb, his fitness is off the charts and his wrestling is totally unmatched. He's a great champion, a humble ambassador for the sport who can win in so many different ways.
However, that doesn't mean he's perfect. If there's one knock on GSP, it's that his chin is questionable. Matt Serra was never known for his power, yet he dropped St-Pierre in his famous upset to win the welterweight title a few years ago. Now, GSP faces the first truly powerful striker of his career. Thiago "the Pit Bull" Alves is a vicious Muay Thai fighter who batters his opponents with knees and leg kicks. Unlike BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, Matt Hughes and so on – all opponents of GSP who were ground specialists more than strikers – Alves is a standup guy. Who knows what could happen if he catches St-Pierre with a flush shot?
There's one other important thing to remember about GSP, though: no fighter studies and prepares before a bout better than he does. He'll know what to expect from Alves and will adjust his gameplan accordingly. Look for GSP to take Alves down early and often and win via ground-and-pound or submission.
Online wagering pick: Georges St-Pierre -260
DAN HENDERSON (24-7) vs MICHAEL BISPING (18-1)
Sports book lines: Henderson -330, Bisping +255
Could we see an American take on a Brit in the French Open Final odds? I wouldn't know. Tennis is for sissies. What I do know is that the coaches of the USA vs Britain Ultimate Fighter series will clash in yet another awesome UFC 100 matchup.
This is an extremely tough fight to call, so what's with the offshore sportsbook favoring Dan Henderson so heavily? Well, "Hendo" is a bit of a legend. He's an all-world wrestler who is absolutely fearless and takes on all comers. His last three opponents: Rampage Jackson, Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin. Enough said. He's a well-conditioned, savvy fighter who does his best work on the ground but also has knockout power in both hands when he needs it.
His opponent, Michael Bisping, is just as fearless. While he's less experienced, Bisping is a very well-rounded fighter who can alter his gameplan on the fly depending on his opponent. He has great heart and fitness and his standup is strong, but he's not a true finisher, and that could be problematic since Henderson also has a granite chin. Given the fact that Henderson has the ability to drop Bisping, it's understandable that he's a favorite.
However, that doesn't mean you should bet on Henderson. Considering how tight this matchup is – Bisping has just one loss, remember, and it was a split decision – Bisping's +255 value is too good to pass up. Straight up, I see Henderson winning, but his -330 line doesn't offer enough upside. Take a flier on Bisping.
