Tesla: What to expect in 2024
Anski
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will begin 2024 with a market cap higher than the valuations of Toyota Motor (TM), Stellantis (TSLA), Ferrari (RACE), Honda (HMC), General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) combined. That means a vigorous bull vs. bear debate is likely to rage on for another year. Outside of ramping up Gigafactory production, potential catalysts for the Austin-based company in the new year include a reveal of the company’s next model, advancements with FSD, government approval for manufacturing in India, strong margin reversion, Cybertruck reactions, and an AI Day event that could show off the potential of the Optimus robot and Tesla’s overall AI upside.
2023 Stock Performance
Tesla (TSLA) ripped a gain of over 130% in 2023 through December 22 to lead the automobile manufacturing sector. The electric vehicle stock trades above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, while the relative strength index is still above 50.
What Quantitative Measures Say
Tesla (TSLA) receives a Hold rating from Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system. Strong factor grades for profitability, growth, and momentum offset a low factor grade for valuation. The overall quant score on TSLA ranks 10th out of the 32 publicly traded automobile manufacturing stocks.
What Wall Street Says
Sell-side analysts are somewhat mixed on Tesla (TSLA) into 2024. Of the 42 analysts with a rating on the books, 15 of them have a Buy-equivalent or higher rating, while 21 have a Hold-equivalent rating and six analysts have a Sell-equivalent rating on Tesla (TSLA).
What Seeking Alpha analysts say
The very latest articles from Seeking Alpha analysts have been bullish, including Bluesea Research’s breakdown that describes why Tesla (TSLA) is in a good position to build its services business, while showing a strong CAGR in revenue metrics due to a good product pipeline.
Latest Earnings
In its most recent earnings report, Tesla (TSLA) reported revenue was up 8.9% year-over-year to $23.35B. The Austin-based company generated $1.9B in GAAP net income during the quarter and $2.3B in non-GAAP net income. Tesla (TSLA) produced 430,488 vehicles and delivered 435,059 vehicles during Q3. The electric vehicle maker said a sequential decline in volume was caused by planned downtimes for factory upgrades.
Earnings Predictions
Meanwhile, analysts expect the electric vehicle juggernaut to earn $0.73 per share in Q4 on revenue of roughly $25.56B. In the same period in 2022, Tesla (TSLA) earned an adjusted $1.19 per share on $24.3B in revenue.
Peers
Tesla (TSLA) is in heated competition on the pricing front in China with BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF), NIO (NIO), Li Auto (LI), and XPeng (XPEV) as more EV models continue to roll out. In the U.S., General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) have pulled back from their aggressive electric vehicle targets, while Lucid Group (LCID) and Fisker (FSR) both lowered their 2023 production guidance recently. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is growing at a faster pace than some of the other electric vehicle startups, but in some segments is not a direct competitor with Tesla (TSLA).
